More Bubble

As promised I'm back with the Friday bubble predictions and just like I said a lot has happened since Tuesday. I probably shouldn't have promised an update today because the bubble picture just got murkier but being the idiot that I am I didn't know how to end Tuesday's column and that was the best line I could come up with. So with that in mind here I am on Friday about to valiantly try to predict the bubble picture. Just like Mark Madsen I may not be good but you've got to like my enthusiasm and effort.

Here we go,

In my best case scenario I said there was ten at large spots. Well Butler ended up losing and Butler is a definitive at large lock so now the best case scenario is nine at large spots. Here's the updated list of who I think has the best chance to get in. As you'll notice it has changed a lot since Tuesday because a lot of games has happened Tuesday and because I'm a shortsighted idiot who didn't completely think the whole thing through.

1) Michigan State: Nothing changes at the top since they won the opening round big 10 game. Even though there losing to Wisconsin as I type this I can't see a top 25 RPI team not getting in.

2) Syracuse: Losing a close game to a very good Notre Dame team isn't the end of the world. They still have a good conference record (10-7) in a premier conference.

3) Xavier: They took care of business in the opening round are are in a close game as I type this. I'm pretty sure they're in.

4) Purdue: Pretty big jump for Purdue but it is justified after winning on Thursday and then again today locking in a semi-final game.

5) Illinois: Won the opening round game and if they can make it to the semi's they'll undoubtedly be in.

6) Kansas State: A good conference record, a semi final appearance and absolute thrashing of fellow bubble team Texas Tech almost makes them a lock.

7) Texas Tech: Still has a very good profile but would not be surprised to see them fall out of the tourney after losing by 22 to Kansas State

8) Florida State: Even though they lost to North Carolina they have a very similar conference and overall record to Georgia Tech with a better RPI and they went further in the conference tournament.


9) Georgia Tech: An opening round loss in the ACC tournament isn't that damaging but they now have a sub .500 conference record and a somewhat high RPI

They rest of the contenders (in no particular order)

West Virginia: Good conference record and decent RPI but a really bad strength of schedule for a premier conference team and also an opening round conference tournament loss.

Stanford: After losing in the opening round of the PAC 10 they have an NIT worthy record and a high RPI. The only thing saving them is a good conference record and a couple quality wins.

Air Force: After losing in the conference opener they have now lost four in a row which is not good no matter what your record is.

Drexel: Good road wins and decent RPI but 8 losses is a lot for a small conference at large team.

Old Dominion: Decent RPI and better record than Drexel (more wins, same losses) they also dominated the head to head match-ups. I think they rate higher than Drexel but still not an overall good profile.

Appalachian State: Good overall record but poor RPI. They're definitely on the outer edge of the bubble.

Arkansas: They just made the SEC semi's but a poor RPI will hold them back.

Akron: if they can win tonight and put up a good showing in the MAC final maybe they have a shot. They're best bet though is to win the conference tournament.

I can't see any other team really getting in unless of course they win they're conference. But being the guy I am I'm probably forgetting someone anyway.

Now that's how you end a column.