The Bubble

With college basketball starting to wind down the regular season I'll turn to a prognosticator and predict the field of sixty five teams. Obviously a lot can happen between now and Sunday but the one time I did this before back in 2003 I got every team except one right. Pretty impressive if you ask me but considering no one gambles on this sort of thing it turns out to be one of my many useless talents right up there with being able to tell you what Seinfeld episode it is after watching only five seconds.

Alright here's the math, 65 teams 31 at large bids meaning 34 are up for grabs.

In the ACC North Carolina, Duke, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Virginia are definitely in. Assuming one of those teams wins the conference tournament that takes away 5 at large spots.

We're down to 29 at large bids.

In the Big East Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette, Notre Dame are in. Again assuming one of those teams wins the conference tournament that takes away another 5 at large spots.

We're down to 24 at large bids.

In the big ten Ohio State, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan State are in. One wins the conference so 3 at large spots are gone.

We're down 21 at large spots

In the Big 12 Texas, Kansas and Texas A&M are in. Best case scenario is one of them wins the conference and 2 at large spots are gone.

We're down to 19 at large bids

In the Pac 10 Arizona, UCLA, USC, Washington State, Oregon are in. 4 will be at large teams.

We're down to 15 at large bids.

In the SEC Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee are in taking away 3 at large bids which leaves,

12 at large bids.

In the Missouri Valley Creighton won the conference tournament and Southern Illinois is a lock so

We're down to 11 at large bids.

In the Mountain West Conference BYU and UNLV are in if one those teams wins the conference tournament then

We're down to 10 at large bids

Other locks to make the tournament are Butler which plays tonight (Tuesday) and Nevada. I'll assume that they both win their conference championships which means that under the absolute best case scenario that I went over there are 10 spots up for grabs.

Here's the most likely case of who goes in,
1) Michigan State: good RPI and the Big Ten only has three locks. They're definitely getting at least 4 teams in the tournament

2) Texas Tech: the Big 12 is getting more than 3 teams and Texas Tech is the most likely one out the bubble teams to make it.

3) Syracuse: High profile team plus a 10-6 conference record.

4) Xavier: Good RPI solid wins and are closing out hot.

5) Illinois: Good RPI, good conference record

6) Air Force: Can't not see them getting in with that RPI plus everybody likes rooting for the armed forces

7) Georgia Tech: 8:8 in the ACC is pretty good plus they have a nice RPI

8) Stanford: Pretty good RPI with some good non-conference wins.

9) Old Dominion: They're in serious trouble but of the remaining teams they have the best chance.

10) Purdue: Good conference record and decent RPI. If they win a couple in the big ten tournament they'll probably move up.

On Friday I'll update this. We'll then know if Butler won their conference and some opening round results of the major conferences.