Before I get to today's column just a couple of points from the last round of the tournament.
1) How entertaining was the Georgetown, North Carolina game? And since I hate North Carolina and have Georgetown making the finals it was all the better. Single handily saved my bracket and gave me an outside shot of winning my pool.
2) See what happens when I call guys out. Lee Humphrey thank you for stepping up and not allowing a pesky Oregon team to knock us out. Thank you.
3) In Simmons column on Tuesday he said how ABC and ESPN talked his wife into writing a recap of the Bachelor for there website. This seems unlikely and I'm pretty sure it went down like this.
Sports Gal: Bill I'm bored I've got nothing to do around the house all day
Simmons: So what do you want me to do? Go do something.
Sports Gal: Bill remember when you made your football picks and I had my own little column that was fun.
Simmons: Yeah
Sports Gal: Well I was thinking maybe you could talk to your editors about giving me a column
Simmons: Well we write about sports. You'd have to write about sports.
Sports Gal: Well they're partners with ABC maybe you could talk to them about me writing something for them.
Simmons gets a pale look over his face as he stands there frozen.
Sports Gal: Bill will you just talk to your editor for me?
Simmons: Ughh
Sports Gal: After all the (expletive) I put up with from you you can't do this one thing for me.
See I'm pretty sure that's how it happened
Anyway so this weekend is Wrestlemania and it may surprise you to know that I was once a wrestling fan. When I say once I mean two years ago and when I say fan I mean huge fan, like order every pay-per-view and go see live shows type of fan. So what turned me off? Well for one thing I became ten times more busy with the start of university and to really get the full entertainment value of wrestling you have to be ensconced in it. There are certain things that you just come to accept when being a wrestling fan. The storylines make no sense, the acting is awful, and that these are muscular men fighting in their underwear. When you are really ensconced in it you forget these things and it is just pure entertainment, but when you only watch occasionally these things really jump out at you. I almost went back last year when I heard that Kevin Federline was on it because well that's just good television but every time I tried to watch all of the above mentioned flaws jumped out at me. Looks like wrestling will be a part of my now dying youth which is said because there's a lot of things that I still miss about it like the following.
1) The thrill of excitement from major pay-per-views like wrestlemania and summerslam. When you're into it the electricity is unbelievable.
2) The wrestling crowds: It's nice to go to a wrestling event with your friends and know you're the coolest guys there. I remember one live show I went to they were throwing out T-shirts and I out jumped a couple of three hundred pound guys, a ten year old and a couple dudes in sweat pants to hall it in. I then proceeded to celebrate like OJ Mayo only to bring the T-Shirt home and realize it was a XXX-L. I guess I should have given it to the guys that were three bills.
3) Back in ninth grade there was an extremely attractive classmate of mine and she overheard my friend and I talk about wrestling and turns out she was a huge fan. I nearly proposed right there. I wasn't that turned on until senior year when another gorgeous girl overheard me talking about a Boxing match and it turned out she loved boxing.
I wish I never stopped watching but now that I have I'm afraid I can't go back. Maybe I should give it one more try. If this Sunday I'm bored around 8:00pm I might just place the order. If you ever cared about wrestling maybe you should consider doing the same.
Wednesday, March 28, 2007
Saturday, March 24, 2007
Repeat?
With the final eight teams (six in a few hours) set we're finally able to see the finish line. No team has looked invincible but they have all shown the ability to win the entire thing. (Well maybe not Memphis or Oregon) With that being said I think it's finally time to consider if the Gators have enough talent and luck to be the first repeat champions since Duke did it about fifteen years ago.
The Pros:
They have the best starting five in the country. I don't care how good Georgetown's starting line-up is the Gators is better. Two possible top five picks and another possible lottery selection. Not to mention that their front courts height are 6-11, 6-10, 6-8.
They have a wealth of experience. Obviously winning the whole thing last year does something for you. Near the end of the Purdue game and the end of the Butler game when it was close the Gators just pulled away. Most of that was because they were just better athletes than their opponents but they still made the right decisions and made their free throws.
There's a Gator mystic that they can always come back and win the game. They won it last year, they blew out Ohio State this year, their football team won it all this year. There's just a certain moxy surrounding the Gators that is going to be hard to put away.
The Cons
They seem disinterested at times. It took them awhile to get going in all three games and two of them came down to the wire against far lesser competition. What happens if a team doesn't let them hang around and there down by 15 at half. Or what happens if it comes down to the wire like against Purdue and Butler only this time the team has similar talent to you? What happens when you feed it to Horford and his shot doesn't go down? What happens when the other team comes back and hits a three instead of missing it like Purdue and Butler did?
They aren't deep. They basically have a 7 man rotation with Richard and Hodge coming off the bench. If someone goes down or gets into foul trouble I'm not sure if Werner or Speights can handle the pressure. They haven't played many minutes and they're both freshman.
Humphrey seems to be in a permanent cold spell. If it were me I'd start Hodge and bring Humphrey of the bench. Against better competition Humphrey just seems too easy to guard. He's nothing but a pure shooter who can't seem to get open looks. Hodge is a better defender, better ball handler and makes better decisions with the ball. He's a good shooter and can create with the ball in his hands. Plus he always seems to know to feed it to the bigs inside. The only downside is that then you have no back-up point guard. In the crunch time though I'd definitely have Hodge in for Humphrey.
Bottom Line
All the teams have had their problems. Kansas couldn't seem to put away an over matched Southern Illinois team. UCLA has trouble scoring, Oregon just doesn't have the horses. Memphis hasn't played real close games since December, Ohio State should have lost twice, North Carolina fell behind by 16 to USC and Georgetown needed a bogus non travelling call to get by Vandy.
So much of this tournament depends on luck but considering the teams left I think they have the best team and the easiest road to the finals.
Can they get it done? Yes. Will they get it done? I don't know
So after all that I came to absolutely no conclusion. Writing at its finest.
The Pros:
They have the best starting five in the country. I don't care how good Georgetown's starting line-up is the Gators is better. Two possible top five picks and another possible lottery selection. Not to mention that their front courts height are 6-11, 6-10, 6-8.
They have a wealth of experience. Obviously winning the whole thing last year does something for you. Near the end of the Purdue game and the end of the Butler game when it was close the Gators just pulled away. Most of that was because they were just better athletes than their opponents but they still made the right decisions and made their free throws.
There's a Gator mystic that they can always come back and win the game. They won it last year, they blew out Ohio State this year, their football team won it all this year. There's just a certain moxy surrounding the Gators that is going to be hard to put away.
The Cons
They seem disinterested at times. It took them awhile to get going in all three games and two of them came down to the wire against far lesser competition. What happens if a team doesn't let them hang around and there down by 15 at half. Or what happens if it comes down to the wire like against Purdue and Butler only this time the team has similar talent to you? What happens when you feed it to Horford and his shot doesn't go down? What happens when the other team comes back and hits a three instead of missing it like Purdue and Butler did?
They aren't deep. They basically have a 7 man rotation with Richard and Hodge coming off the bench. If someone goes down or gets into foul trouble I'm not sure if Werner or Speights can handle the pressure. They haven't played many minutes and they're both freshman.
Humphrey seems to be in a permanent cold spell. If it were me I'd start Hodge and bring Humphrey of the bench. Against better competition Humphrey just seems too easy to guard. He's nothing but a pure shooter who can't seem to get open looks. Hodge is a better defender, better ball handler and makes better decisions with the ball. He's a good shooter and can create with the ball in his hands. Plus he always seems to know to feed it to the bigs inside. The only downside is that then you have no back-up point guard. In the crunch time though I'd definitely have Hodge in for Humphrey.
Bottom Line
All the teams have had their problems. Kansas couldn't seem to put away an over matched Southern Illinois team. UCLA has trouble scoring, Oregon just doesn't have the horses. Memphis hasn't played real close games since December, Ohio State should have lost twice, North Carolina fell behind by 16 to USC and Georgetown needed a bogus non travelling call to get by Vandy.
So much of this tournament depends on luck but considering the teams left I think they have the best team and the easiest road to the finals.
Can they get it done? Yes. Will they get it done? I don't know
So after all that I came to absolutely no conclusion. Writing at its finest.
Tuesday, March 20, 2007
The Madness
Well it's official I have no idea what I'm talking about. Let's review some of the great insight I gave last week.
1) Avoid the over hyped underdogs. Well the most over hyped underdogs Winthrop and Virginia Commonwealth actually lived up to the hype and won in the first round.
2) Avoid high seeded mid majors. Butler and Southern Illinois fell into that category and it looks like they're still playing
3) Always pick a 12 seed to win over a 5 seed. This happened every year since like the beginning of time except this year all four five seeds prevailed with three of them (Tennessee, Butler, USC) making the sweet sixteen.
4) When in doubt pick the team with the best player: Thanks a lot Durant.
With that being said I still have 7 of 8 of my elite eight teams alive and they all have a good shot at winning their games.
Everyone seems to think that the game of the tournament so far is Xavier versus Ohio State but personally I liked the Vandy, Washington State game. Both were exciting but Ohio State took control over Xavier in overtime whereas the Vandy game was tight to the end and even featured a rare whitewash. (Bill Simmons reference where there are five white guys on the court at one time)
Still in denial that Texas lost. They got it handed to them. Complete domination. Somewhere Matt Lienart and Reggie Bush must be smiling.
Game I'm looking forward to the most for the sweet sixteen is the Tennessee, Ohio State game. Ohio State's got Oden and Conley but they go through spurts where they have trouble scoring and we all know from that first round game that Tennessee can score more than Gene Simmons. Should no doubt be interesting.
Game I'm looking forward to the least is the Pitt, UCLA game. First one to 40 wins. That game will be ugly. It's going to be like that time I went into that Macro midterm way under prepared because I spent the entire weekend watching college basketball. Yup that was my Monday.
Overall the tournament hasn't been great but it's still the greatest sporting event in the world. Nothing even comes close. Time to rest up for another weekend and let's hope the Gators can continue to pull through.
1) Avoid the over hyped underdogs. Well the most over hyped underdogs Winthrop and Virginia Commonwealth actually lived up to the hype and won in the first round.
2) Avoid high seeded mid majors. Butler and Southern Illinois fell into that category and it looks like they're still playing
3) Always pick a 12 seed to win over a 5 seed. This happened every year since like the beginning of time except this year all four five seeds prevailed with three of them (Tennessee, Butler, USC) making the sweet sixteen.
4) When in doubt pick the team with the best player: Thanks a lot Durant.
With that being said I still have 7 of 8 of my elite eight teams alive and they all have a good shot at winning their games.
Everyone seems to think that the game of the tournament so far is Xavier versus Ohio State but personally I liked the Vandy, Washington State game. Both were exciting but Ohio State took control over Xavier in overtime whereas the Vandy game was tight to the end and even featured a rare whitewash. (Bill Simmons reference where there are five white guys on the court at one time)
Still in denial that Texas lost. They got it handed to them. Complete domination. Somewhere Matt Lienart and Reggie Bush must be smiling.
Game I'm looking forward to the most for the sweet sixteen is the Tennessee, Ohio State game. Ohio State's got Oden and Conley but they go through spurts where they have trouble scoring and we all know from that first round game that Tennessee can score more than Gene Simmons. Should no doubt be interesting.
Game I'm looking forward to the least is the Pitt, UCLA game. First one to 40 wins. That game will be ugly. It's going to be like that time I went into that Macro midterm way under prepared because I spent the entire weekend watching college basketball. Yup that was my Monday.
Overall the tournament hasn't been great but it's still the greatest sporting event in the world. Nothing even comes close. Time to rest up for another weekend and let's hope the Gators can continue to pull through.
Wednesday, March 14, 2007
Picks
Short column today and their probably won't be another one until next week. I know, I'm lazy but, there's a whole lot of basketball to watch and I have three upcoming midterms. Ordinarily the column would take priority over school but my parents are paying for it so I figure I'll throw them a bone and actually put in some effort.
With that being said here are a couple rules when filling out your bracket.
1) Avoid the popular underdog: They almost always lose I don't know if it's sheer luck or if they get it in there head that they'll win which makes them complacent and then they forget the fact that they go to a school like Winthrop and not Notre Dame.
2) Avoid high seeded small schools. Generally their not as good as they think they are. That means you Butler, Southern Illinois.
3) Pick at least one number 12 seed to win over a number 5 seed. It's like a Naomi Campbell arrest. Happens every year and you don't know why.
4) If in doubt pick the school with the best player. Looks like good news for Texas fans.
5) Pick teams that you like: Remember it's a crapshoot so why not root for teams that you actually like instead of having the awkward their my favorite team and I picked them to lose but now they won scenario.
Hopefully the following link will work and you can see my picks if not I'll give you a quick run over of the highlights.
http://tournament.fantasysports.yahoo.com/men/1276165/bracketoverview
My Elite Eight is: Florida, Oregon, Kansas, UCLA, Texas, Georgetown, Ohio State, Texas A&M
Final Four: Florida, Kansas, Georgetown, Texas A&M
Finals: Florida, Georgetown
Winner: Florida
See I had to go with the Gators although my head is telling me that Kansas will win. Other teams that have an outstanding shot are Georgetown and Texas.
My final piece of advice is to watch as many games as you can possibly stand. Skip class, phone in sick whatever it takes. I know I'm going to put in a good 12 hours a day from Thursday until Sunday. (On another unrelated note I don't have a girlfriend and I don't understand why) Obviously this is impossible for some so make sure you at least watch Texas play because you may never get to see Durant play in college again and he is an man among boys. Makes me jealous that he is two years younger than I am.
Until next week
With that being said here are a couple rules when filling out your bracket.
1) Avoid the popular underdog: They almost always lose I don't know if it's sheer luck or if they get it in there head that they'll win which makes them complacent and then they forget the fact that they go to a school like Winthrop and not Notre Dame.
2) Avoid high seeded small schools. Generally their not as good as they think they are. That means you Butler, Southern Illinois.
3) Pick at least one number 12 seed to win over a number 5 seed. It's like a Naomi Campbell arrest. Happens every year and you don't know why.
4) If in doubt pick the school with the best player. Looks like good news for Texas fans.
5) Pick teams that you like: Remember it's a crapshoot so why not root for teams that you actually like instead of having the awkward their my favorite team and I picked them to lose but now they won scenario.
Hopefully the following link will work and you can see my picks if not I'll give you a quick run over of the highlights.
http://tournament.fantasysports.yahoo.com/men/1276165/bracketoverview
My Elite Eight is: Florida, Oregon, Kansas, UCLA, Texas, Georgetown, Ohio State, Texas A&M
Final Four: Florida, Kansas, Georgetown, Texas A&M
Finals: Florida, Georgetown
Winner: Florida
See I had to go with the Gators although my head is telling me that Kansas will win. Other teams that have an outstanding shot are Georgetown and Texas.
My final piece of advice is to watch as many games as you can possibly stand. Skip class, phone in sick whatever it takes. I know I'm going to put in a good 12 hours a day from Thursday until Sunday. (On another unrelated note I don't have a girlfriend and I don't understand why) Obviously this is impossible for some so make sure you at least watch Texas play because you may never get to see Durant play in college again and he is an man among boys. Makes me jealous that he is two years younger than I am.
Until next week
Friday, March 9, 2007
More Bubble
As promised I'm back with the Friday bubble predictions and just like I said a lot has happened since Tuesday. I probably shouldn't have promised an update today because the bubble picture just got murkier but being the idiot that I am I didn't know how to end Tuesday's column and that was the best line I could come up with. So with that in mind here I am on Friday about to valiantly try to predict the bubble picture. Just like Mark Madsen I may not be good but you've got to like my enthusiasm and effort.
Here we go,
In my best case scenario I said there was ten at large spots. Well Butler ended up losing and Butler is a definitive at large lock so now the best case scenario is nine at large spots. Here's the updated list of who I think has the best chance to get in. As you'll notice it has changed a lot since Tuesday because a lot of games has happened Tuesday and because I'm a shortsighted idiot who didn't completely think the whole thing through.
1) Michigan State: Nothing changes at the top since they won the opening round big 10 game. Even though there losing to Wisconsin as I type this I can't see a top 25 RPI team not getting in.
2) Syracuse: Losing a close game to a very good Notre Dame team isn't the end of the world. They still have a good conference record (10-7) in a premier conference.
3) Xavier: They took care of business in the opening round are are in a close game as I type this. I'm pretty sure they're in.
4) Purdue: Pretty big jump for Purdue but it is justified after winning on Thursday and then again today locking in a semi-final game.
5) Illinois: Won the opening round game and if they can make it to the semi's they'll undoubtedly be in.
6) Kansas State: A good conference record, a semi final appearance and absolute thrashing of fellow bubble team Texas Tech almost makes them a lock.
7) Texas Tech: Still has a very good profile but would not be surprised to see them fall out of the tourney after losing by 22 to Kansas State
8) Florida State: Even though they lost to North Carolina they have a very similar conference and overall record to Georgia Tech with a better RPI and they went further in the conference tournament.
9) Georgia Tech: An opening round loss in the ACC tournament isn't that damaging but they now have a sub .500 conference record and a somewhat high RPI
They rest of the contenders (in no particular order)
West Virginia: Good conference record and decent RPI but a really bad strength of schedule for a premier conference team and also an opening round conference tournament loss.
Stanford: After losing in the opening round of the PAC 10 they have an NIT worthy record and a high RPI. The only thing saving them is a good conference record and a couple quality wins.
Air Force: After losing in the conference opener they have now lost four in a row which is not good no matter what your record is.
Drexel: Good road wins and decent RPI but 8 losses is a lot for a small conference at large team.
Old Dominion: Decent RPI and better record than Drexel (more wins, same losses) they also dominated the head to head match-ups. I think they rate higher than Drexel but still not an overall good profile.
Appalachian State: Good overall record but poor RPI. They're definitely on the outer edge of the bubble.
Arkansas: They just made the SEC semi's but a poor RPI will hold them back.
Akron: if they can win tonight and put up a good showing in the MAC final maybe they have a shot. They're best bet though is to win the conference tournament.
I can't see any other team really getting in unless of course they win they're conference. But being the guy I am I'm probably forgetting someone anyway.
Now that's how you end a column.
Here we go,
In my best case scenario I said there was ten at large spots. Well Butler ended up losing and Butler is a definitive at large lock so now the best case scenario is nine at large spots. Here's the updated list of who I think has the best chance to get in. As you'll notice it has changed a lot since Tuesday because a lot of games has happened Tuesday and because I'm a shortsighted idiot who didn't completely think the whole thing through.
1) Michigan State: Nothing changes at the top since they won the opening round big 10 game. Even though there losing to Wisconsin as I type this I can't see a top 25 RPI team not getting in.
2) Syracuse: Losing a close game to a very good Notre Dame team isn't the end of the world. They still have a good conference record (10-7) in a premier conference.
3) Xavier: They took care of business in the opening round are are in a close game as I type this. I'm pretty sure they're in.
4) Purdue: Pretty big jump for Purdue but it is justified after winning on Thursday and then again today locking in a semi-final game.
5) Illinois: Won the opening round game and if they can make it to the semi's they'll undoubtedly be in.
6) Kansas State: A good conference record, a semi final appearance and absolute thrashing of fellow bubble team Texas Tech almost makes them a lock.
7) Texas Tech: Still has a very good profile but would not be surprised to see them fall out of the tourney after losing by 22 to Kansas State
8) Florida State: Even though they lost to North Carolina they have a very similar conference and overall record to Georgia Tech with a better RPI and they went further in the conference tournament.
9) Georgia Tech: An opening round loss in the ACC tournament isn't that damaging but they now have a sub .500 conference record and a somewhat high RPI
They rest of the contenders (in no particular order)
West Virginia: Good conference record and decent RPI but a really bad strength of schedule for a premier conference team and also an opening round conference tournament loss.
Stanford: After losing in the opening round of the PAC 10 they have an NIT worthy record and a high RPI. The only thing saving them is a good conference record and a couple quality wins.
Air Force: After losing in the conference opener they have now lost four in a row which is not good no matter what your record is.
Drexel: Good road wins and decent RPI but 8 losses is a lot for a small conference at large team.
Old Dominion: Decent RPI and better record than Drexel (more wins, same losses) they also dominated the head to head match-ups. I think they rate higher than Drexel but still not an overall good profile.
Appalachian State: Good overall record but poor RPI. They're definitely on the outer edge of the bubble.
Arkansas: They just made the SEC semi's but a poor RPI will hold them back.
Akron: if they can win tonight and put up a good showing in the MAC final maybe they have a shot. They're best bet though is to win the conference tournament.
I can't see any other team really getting in unless of course they win they're conference. But being the guy I am I'm probably forgetting someone anyway.
Now that's how you end a column.
Tuesday, March 6, 2007
The Bubble
With college basketball starting to wind down the regular season I'll turn to a prognosticator and predict the field of sixty five teams. Obviously a lot can happen between now and Sunday but the one time I did this before back in 2003 I got every team except one right. Pretty impressive if you ask me but considering no one gambles on this sort of thing it turns out to be one of my many useless talents right up there with being able to tell you what Seinfeld episode it is after watching only five seconds.
Alright here's the math, 65 teams 31 at large bids meaning 34 are up for grabs.
In the ACC North Carolina, Duke, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Virginia are definitely in. Assuming one of those teams wins the conference tournament that takes away 5 at large spots.
We're down to 29 at large bids.
In the Big East Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette, Notre Dame are in. Again assuming one of those teams wins the conference tournament that takes away another 5 at large spots.
We're down to 24 at large bids.
In the big ten Ohio State, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan State are in. One wins the conference so 3 at large spots are gone.
We're down 21 at large spots
In the Big 12 Texas, Kansas and Texas A&M are in. Best case scenario is one of them wins the conference and 2 at large spots are gone.
We're down to 19 at large bids
In the Pac 10 Arizona, UCLA, USC, Washington State, Oregon are in. 4 will be at large teams.
We're down to 15 at large bids.
In the SEC Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee are in taking away 3 at large bids which leaves,
12 at large bids.
In the Missouri Valley Creighton won the conference tournament and Southern Illinois is a lock so
We're down to 11 at large bids.
In the Mountain West Conference BYU and UNLV are in if one those teams wins the conference tournament then
We're down to 10 at large bids
Other locks to make the tournament are Butler which plays tonight (Tuesday) and Nevada. I'll assume that they both win their conference championships which means that under the absolute best case scenario that I went over there are 10 spots up for grabs.
Here's the most likely case of who goes in,
1) Michigan State: good RPI and the Big Ten only has three locks. They're definitely getting at least 4 teams in the tournament
2) Texas Tech: the Big 12 is getting more than 3 teams and Texas Tech is the most likely one out the bubble teams to make it.
3) Syracuse: High profile team plus a 10-6 conference record.
4) Xavier: Good RPI solid wins and are closing out hot.
5) Illinois: Good RPI, good conference record
6) Air Force: Can't not see them getting in with that RPI plus everybody likes rooting for the armed forces
7) Georgia Tech: 8:8 in the ACC is pretty good plus they have a nice RPI
8) Stanford: Pretty good RPI with some good non-conference wins.
9) Old Dominion: They're in serious trouble but of the remaining teams they have the best chance.
10) Purdue: Good conference record and decent RPI. If they win a couple in the big ten tournament they'll probably move up.
On Friday I'll update this. We'll then know if Butler won their conference and some opening round results of the major conferences.
Alright here's the math, 65 teams 31 at large bids meaning 34 are up for grabs.
In the ACC North Carolina, Duke, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Virginia are definitely in. Assuming one of those teams wins the conference tournament that takes away 5 at large spots.
We're down to 29 at large bids.
In the Big East Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette, Notre Dame are in. Again assuming one of those teams wins the conference tournament that takes away another 5 at large spots.
We're down to 24 at large bids.
In the big ten Ohio State, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan State are in. One wins the conference so 3 at large spots are gone.
We're down 21 at large spots
In the Big 12 Texas, Kansas and Texas A&M are in. Best case scenario is one of them wins the conference and 2 at large spots are gone.
We're down to 19 at large bids
In the Pac 10 Arizona, UCLA, USC, Washington State, Oregon are in. 4 will be at large teams.
We're down to 15 at large bids.
In the SEC Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee are in taking away 3 at large bids which leaves,
12 at large bids.
In the Missouri Valley Creighton won the conference tournament and Southern Illinois is a lock so
We're down to 11 at large bids.
In the Mountain West Conference BYU and UNLV are in if one those teams wins the conference tournament then
We're down to 10 at large bids
Other locks to make the tournament are Butler which plays tonight (Tuesday) and Nevada. I'll assume that they both win their conference championships which means that under the absolute best case scenario that I went over there are 10 spots up for grabs.
Here's the most likely case of who goes in,
1) Michigan State: good RPI and the Big Ten only has three locks. They're definitely getting at least 4 teams in the tournament
2) Texas Tech: the Big 12 is getting more than 3 teams and Texas Tech is the most likely one out the bubble teams to make it.
3) Syracuse: High profile team plus a 10-6 conference record.
4) Xavier: Good RPI solid wins and are closing out hot.
5) Illinois: Good RPI, good conference record
6) Air Force: Can't not see them getting in with that RPI plus everybody likes rooting for the armed forces
7) Georgia Tech: 8:8 in the ACC is pretty good plus they have a nice RPI
8) Stanford: Pretty good RPI with some good non-conference wins.
9) Old Dominion: They're in serious trouble but of the remaining teams they have the best chance.
10) Purdue: Good conference record and decent RPI. If they win a couple in the big ten tournament they'll probably move up.
On Friday I'll update this. We'll then know if Butler won their conference and some opening round results of the major conferences.
Sunday, March 4, 2007
What's your fantasy?
The sports scene is starting to heat up. We just finished the NFL combine and are getting into NFL free agency and college pro days. The NBA is starting to make the playoff push, college basketball is in the conference championships and oh so close to march madness and major league baseball spring training is just getting started. So that means that one of my favorite pastime is also getting started. That's right fantasy baseball.
Being the nice guy that I am I'm going provide you with some draft day wisdom because I just repeated as champion in my main league last year and even though half the guys quit in the middle of the season and one guy didn't bother to show up at the draft at all, it doesn't matter. As I've said before winning is winning and so here are a collection of tips.
1) Go with safe picks in the early rounds. You really want to gamble on Howard over Ortiz. They basically put up the same numbers last year only Ortiz has been doing this for the past three years. Same thing with Beltran over Manny. Manny is the biggest lock in the draft just pencil in 300, 30, and 100. Beltran just seems a little too precious and fragile plus last year was by far his biggest year in the bigs. On that same line of thinking I'd be weary of Reyes and Cano as well.
2) Watch out for injuries. Pitching is brutal on the arm we just aren't went to throw like that for prolonged periods of time. It's just a matter of time before Santana blows out his elbow. Think about that before you pull the trigger with the second overall pick.
3) Watch out for guys who just had career years. There's lots of stats that measure this sort of thing like your batting average compared to your contact rate or something like that but just be aware it's unlikely that Morneau is going to continue on the tear he hit last year and that was probably Jeter's best year not the start of a new stage in his career.
4) If you think a guy is juicing then ignore that last point. Then Morneau is going to hit on the tear he hit last year and this is the start of a new stage in Jeter's career.
5) Closers are overrated. They just don't get enough innings to make that big of an impact.
6) In Roto leagues you have to avoid guys that only bring one stat to the table like Podsednik. In head to head you can get away with it. You can load up on certain categories so you'll definitely win them and suck in others while the rest of the league tries to get a balanced team. A good reason why guys like Crawford are more valuable Roto guys than head to head guys.
7) Don't be that guy who takes too long drafting players. I hate that guy.
8) Don't be that guy who drafts Prior or Wood.
9) Be that guy that drafts Bonds. There's lots of high comedy plus you get to have him on your team when he breaks the record. Which means absolutely nothing but still.
10) Pick a cool team name
11) Don't fall in love with certain players. This is my biggest flaw in fantasy football. I know the guys so well and over prepare for the draft that when I get my team I always think that guys who aren't producing will turn it around next thing you know it's December and I've been riding Kevin Jones for four months.
12) Catchers are overrated. Even guys like Martinez and Mauer don't produce up to their draft positions.
13) Always trash talk. Always.
With that being said here's my top ten players for the upcoming 2007 season
Pujols
Soriano
Ortiz
Rodriguez
Ramirez
Cabrera
Guerrero
Howard
Beltran
Berkman
Being the nice guy that I am I'm going provide you with some draft day wisdom because I just repeated as champion in my main league last year and even though half the guys quit in the middle of the season and one guy didn't bother to show up at the draft at all, it doesn't matter. As I've said before winning is winning and so here are a collection of tips.
1) Go with safe picks in the early rounds. You really want to gamble on Howard over Ortiz. They basically put up the same numbers last year only Ortiz has been doing this for the past three years. Same thing with Beltran over Manny. Manny is the biggest lock in the draft just pencil in 300, 30, and 100. Beltran just seems a little too precious and fragile plus last year was by far his biggest year in the bigs. On that same line of thinking I'd be weary of Reyes and Cano as well.
2) Watch out for injuries. Pitching is brutal on the arm we just aren't went to throw like that for prolonged periods of time. It's just a matter of time before Santana blows out his elbow. Think about that before you pull the trigger with the second overall pick.
3) Watch out for guys who just had career years. There's lots of stats that measure this sort of thing like your batting average compared to your contact rate or something like that but just be aware it's unlikely that Morneau is going to continue on the tear he hit last year and that was probably Jeter's best year not the start of a new stage in his career.
4) If you think a guy is juicing then ignore that last point. Then Morneau is going to hit on the tear he hit last year and this is the start of a new stage in Jeter's career.
5) Closers are overrated. They just don't get enough innings to make that big of an impact.
6) In Roto leagues you have to avoid guys that only bring one stat to the table like Podsednik. In head to head you can get away with it. You can load up on certain categories so you'll definitely win them and suck in others while the rest of the league tries to get a balanced team. A good reason why guys like Crawford are more valuable Roto guys than head to head guys.
7) Don't be that guy who takes too long drafting players. I hate that guy.
8) Don't be that guy who drafts Prior or Wood.
9) Be that guy that drafts Bonds. There's lots of high comedy plus you get to have him on your team when he breaks the record. Which means absolutely nothing but still.
10) Pick a cool team name
11) Don't fall in love with certain players. This is my biggest flaw in fantasy football. I know the guys so well and over prepare for the draft that when I get my team I always think that guys who aren't producing will turn it around next thing you know it's December and I've been riding Kevin Jones for four months.
12) Catchers are overrated. Even guys like Martinez and Mauer don't produce up to their draft positions.
13) Always trash talk. Always.
With that being said here's my top ten players for the upcoming 2007 season
Pujols
Soriano
Ortiz
Rodriguez
Ramirez
Cabrera
Guerrero
Howard
Beltran
Berkman
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