Top Prospects

The NFL Draft is less than two weeks away and this year there seems to be less buzz than most. From what I've read from people in the know this is because there is so much uncertainty about teams moving picks and where players are slotted.

I must admit that I'm a draft junkie. It started around 1998 when I first go intrigued by the Peyton Manning, Ryan Leaf debate. I was a Leaf supporter. (What? I was 11 years old cut me some slack) That started my fascination with the draft which culminated in me getting the Sporting News draft preview book in 2001 when everyone including myself was enamoured with Mike Vick. Needless to say every year since I've gotten the magazine and have followed attentively.

Overall my record for picking out players to be successes has been disastrous. After Ryan Leaf I thought for sure that Charles Rogers would be the dominant receiver in the NFL. He was the same age as Roy Williams who got drafted a year later to the same team and only he put up better numbers and was considered a better player. I thought Robert Gallery would be a stud left tackle. Methinks he spends too much time in the tattoo parlour and not enough time in the weight room. So you see I am a complete idiot and am in no way qualified to be GM. (I know tough to believe) but I wasn't alone. So here's the list of the top three prospects at each position heading into the draft from 2001-2007. This has nothing to do with performance in the NFL just how good the scouts thought they would be at draft time. Also to simplify things you had to be the first player drafted at your position to be considered. So even though I consider Bryant Mckinnie to be one of the three best left tackle prospects of the last seven years he doesn't get in because the Bills were stupid enough to draft Mike Williams ahead of him.

Two things before I get started
1) You'll see that 2004 was an unusually strong draft year (Eli Manning, Stephen Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald, Kellen Winslow, Tommie Harris, Jon Vilma, DJ Williams, DeAngelo Hall, Sean Taylor) While 2005 other than Merriman (who wasn't even the first outside linebacker taken) was very sub par (Alex Smith, Ronnie Brown, Jammal Brown, Erasmus James, Travis Johnson, Pacman Jones, Thomas Davis)

2) I'll start today with the offensive side of the ball and on Friday I'll do the defence.

QB
1) Mike Vick (2001) Unprecedented hype, he dominated college (20-1 as a starter) was one of the fastest players in the draft and had a rocket left arm. Only concerns was his height (6'0) and his lack of production as a passer.

2) Carson Palmer (2003): Had the prototype build, arm strength, intangibles, came a from a big time program and was the Heisman trophy winner. Turned out to be a great pick

3) Eli Manning (2004): Had the size and the pedigree. There were some detractors but most people thought and still think the kid is the real deal irregardless of what the statistics tell you.

RB
1) Reggie Bush (2006): The most elusive college back since Barry Sanders. Won the Heisman and 2 national championships. Only worry was whether he could carry the load. Which is still a concern today.

2) Ronnie Brown (2005): Didn't matter that Cadillac was the starting tailback in college and was more productive. Everyone fell in love with his size and speed. They're still waiting on it in the pros.

3) Adrian Peterson (2007): I'll assume he's the top back taken this year. Has all the skills, speed, and size. Only concern is durability.

TE
1) Kellen Winslow (2004): Partly because of his skills, partly because of his dad and partly because of his mouth. Winslow was to be the next great tight end. Too bad he's been injured because on the field he's a beast.

2) Vernon Davis (2006): Not that productive in college but an absolute specimen. His NFL combine workout is legendary.

3) Jeremy Shockey (2002): Great production and wild behaviour. He's the perfect fit for New York.

C
1) Nick Mangold (2006): Centers don't get much hype but Mangold was an athlete and a technician.

2) Jeff Faine (2003): Not the greatest athlete but is smart and scrappy.

3) Chris Spencer (2005): No real hype around him but he was a first round pick

G
1) Eric Steinbach (2003): A converted tight end had adequate size but elite speed and quickness.

2) Steve Hutchinson (2001): Four years of great production and plus size.

3) Vernon Carey (2004): Coming out of high school had huge expectations that he never really lived up to in college. Nevertheless those expectations carried over into the pros.

Now on to the toughest two positions to grade. There have been many highly regarded tackles and wide outs over the years and it's debatable who was the best prospect. Nevertheless here's the correct answer as to how to grade them.

OT
1) Robert Gallery (2004): He was huge, (6'7 320lbs) fast, and dominant in college. Everyone seemed to think he was the safest pick in the draft, a ten year starter with multiple pro bowls. I don't know really what went wrong.

2) Leonard Davis (2001): I know he ended up playing guard but he was a tackle coming out of college. Scary big (370lbs) and strong with quick feet. Is a decent pro but not the blue chipper everyone thought.

3) D'Brickashaw Ferguson (2006): Tall and athletic. He had a great college career and is poised for a good professional one.

WR
1) Larry Fitzgerald (2004): Was big and deceptively fast. Had great hands. Ran great routes. Was mature and productive in college. Sounds a lot like the next guy.

2) Calvin Johnson (2007): Everyone seems to think he has no real weaknesses. I can't wait to see him in the pros.

3) Charles Rogers (2003): Had all the tools. Blazing speed, good size, great hands, smooth routes. I guess it was the mental part that did him in. I still can't believe he's not a star.


Top 3 overall offensive prospects
1) Mike Vick (2001): Nothing matched his hype coming out of college. He was supposed to transform the game.

2) Reggie Bush (2006): A once in a decade athlete. Seems well on his way in the pros.

3) Carson Palmer (2003): When you draw up a QB prototype you draw up him.