Lottery

Wow it's been awhile. Too long really. I got a little distracted with the warm weather and last week I started a new job so I've been adjusting to my new schedule and the column just plain slipped my mind. Most likely because there hasn't been a heck of a lot of interesting things going on in sports. The NBA playoffs are trudging along and Baseball is still going strong but I can honestly say that the thing that got me the most excited was the NBA draft lottery. Depending on how good the draft class is this event can range from mildly intriguing to down right exciting. With this years absolutely loaded draft class it fell into the latter category. So that got me thinking. The NBA lottery stirs up a lot of excitement for its draft and it clearly has a positive effect on the NBA. But would it also work in other sports like baseball or football or is it just suited to the NBA?

There's a couple of reasons why it's ideal for the NBA.

1) There are so few players on a team that one legit superstar can mean the difference from being a contender to being the league's laughingstock.

2) The talent disparity between picks is dramatic. Often times there is one can't miss player and a bunch of question marks (Not always) Also the proportion of first round picks who become busts is large (due to the small roster sizes) therefore the higher your pick the greater the chance of an impact player which doubles in importance because of point number one.

So with those two previous points it's obvious why having a lottery adds to the excitement of the draft and hopefully will prevent tanking because just as the Celtics and Bucks found out last week increasing your odds of a top pick doesn't necessarily get you anywhere.

So will this work in Major League Baseball?
Probably not. The draft is already a non event for everyone except hardcore baseball fans so it wouldn't add any excitement level. Also baseball prospects don't' make an immediate impact and there is rarely a consensus top pick. So I can't really see the point for Baseball.

Well what about the NFL?
Even though there is a general consensus of the top overall player, seldom does that player get taken first overall unless he's a QB. Most teams end up picking for need so there doesn't seem to be a functional reason to do it. Also one player rarely turns around an entire franchise with a couple of notable exceptions (mostly QB's) However the NFL draft is huge. So I'm sure it would generate some buzz. But does the NFL really need it? After the Super Bowl there's Senior Bowl week which shortly leads into the combine, which leads into private workouts, which leads up to the draft. There's doesn't seem to be any time lag where they could use a jolt of attention.

So after careful analysis the draft lottery seems perfect for the NBA and only the NBA. I look forward to it ever year and maybe just one sport having it is enough.

(I'm perfectly aware the NHL uses it but come on that's not really a major sport)

Conference Finals

Well it's official, I like most casual NBA fans have now lost interest in the NBA playoffs. Of the four teams remaining two of them have no superstar players (Jazz, Pistons). One has the most boring superstar in all of sports for the past decade (Spurs) and one has a legitimately young and exciting superstar who just doesn't seem to care and mails in games. (Cavs) Add to the fact that the favorites to make the finals are both defensively minded teams and this could be an absolute disaster of a conclusion to an exciting start to the NBA playoffs. Anyways I couldn't bail now on my picks just because I lost interest so here goes.

Eastern Conference
Cavs VS Pistons
Winner: Pistons
My guess is that it goes seven games. Not so much because of great competitive basketball being played but because both teams like to mail in games so most likely one team will take the lead and then decide they've got the series wrapped up and relax then the other team will tie it up and think wow "we tied it up they're not that good I think we can take it easy the next game" Mercifully the series can't go longer than seven and Detroit should win because LeBron will realize all of the summer holidays he's missing.

Western Conference
Jazz VS Spurs
Winner: Jazz
In case you haven't noticed I really dislike the Spurs and eventually I got to believe that a younger and hungrier team will take them out. I hope the Jazz is that team. With Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer not to mention the resurgence of Kirilenko I like they're chances. They've flown under the radar all season and have been great in the playoffs. I know there's a big difference between Tim Duncan's Spurs and the Warriors but the Jazz are well rested and have a good coach. All the pieces are in place I just hope it happens this season and not next.

Hardest Records to Break

With Barry Bonds' assault on the all time home run record taking place before our very eyes this seems like a good time to dust off an old favorite topic of mine and that's "what are the hardest records in sports to break"? I've seen this debated many times by sports writers and generally they get it all wrong. They say things like breaking the record for most consecutive no hitters is the toughest record in all of sports to break. To do this you would need to pitch three consecutive no hitters which seems impossible, but couldn't you see someone getting on a hot streak and doing it? I know it's not likely but come on, it's three games. Even a bad pitcher could get lucky and do it. So that brings me to my first point, all records that are going to be the toughest to break are all career related. Anyone can get on a hot streak but sustained excellence often for close to twenty years is much more difficult to duplicate. Secondly they should be significant records so for instance I don't really care who has the most penalty minutes in hockey and third they should be individual. Let's reward the player and not the team. Lastly I'm only going to include records from sports I know somewhat about. So sorry cricket fans none of your records are on the list.

Here's some notable exemptions. Jerry Rice's 22 895 receiving yards is most likely never going to be broken but with the ageless Marvin Harrison you just never know. There was too much doubt to put it on the list.

Cal Ripken's playing streak isn't on there because it's not that big of a deal. So he played a bunch of games in a row. He should have taken a rest because it hurt his team in September with his annual decline in production.


Here we go the official list of the five hardest records to break in sports.

5) Basketball's Highest Average Points per game for an entire season
Wilt Chamberlain 50.4 points 1961-1962.

O.K. it seems like I'm contradicting myself and frankly I am but come on can you really see someone ever averaging 50.4 points for an entire season ever again? Current scoring leaders would need to score about 20 more points per game just to get it. Other Chamberlain records that I considered were the most rebounds in a career 23,924 (15 per game for twenty years.) and rebounds per game in a season 22.9. I ultimately felt that with the advances in health care we could see someone play twenty five seasons and possibly break the total rebounds and I feel that the 50.4 points is harder to get to than 22.9 rebounds.


4) NHL Most points in a career
Wayne Gretzky 2857

Anyone who thinks that Sidney Crosby is breaking this record is dreaming. All he'll have to do is average 115 points a season for 25 years. Probably the most untouchable record that was recorded recently. There are plenty of other Gretzky records that I could have one this list as well like most points in a season 215, most assists, most goals, etc. This one however seems the most untouchable.

3) MLB Highest Batting Average
Ty Cobb .367

Baseball could have it's own list of top ten unbeatable records but I'll limit myself to two. One batting and one pitching. I can't really see anyone having a long career hitting .367 with the amount of relievers and specialists in today's game. Other records I considered were most stolen bases all time (Ricky Henderson 1406) But it's conceivable that stolen bases could become more of a trend and someone beats it. One I didn't consider was DiMaggio's hit streak. Everyone thinks it's untouchable but every couple years someone makes a legitimate run at it. It's just a matter of time before someone beats it.

2) Boxing Most Wins
Willie Pep 230
Most distinguished fighters top out at about 50 wins which is just over 20% of the necessary wins required to break the record. With the amount of time between fights now it's safe to say this record isn't going down.


1) MLB Most wins
Cy Young 511

This is without a doubt the most untouchable record in all of sports. No one is coming close and no one is ever going to surpass it. With the five man rotation that teams use now most people think it's very unlikely to see any young pitchers reach 300 wins. That doesn't even come close to the required 512 to break it. To put it in perspective last year no pitcher won twenty games but for you to break the record it would require 26 straight years of 20 wins. The other pitching stat that I considered was for the best era ever which Walsh owns at 1.82. It's very unlikely someones breaking that one but there is no way that anyone tops the most wins in MLB history.

Round 2

So before posting my second round playoff predictions I naturally wanted to wait until the first round was over. Well some idiot thought that the second round of the East should start before the first round of the West was finished. My guess is that this is the same guy who decided the first round should last two weeks and be a best of seven instead of a best of five because a best of five would be too exciting. With all that said maybe starting the second round early will be a good thing because after I only went 5-3 in the first round I could use a game in hand before making my predictions. So considering another game is being played as a type this I'll try to hammer this column out quickly

Eastern Conference
Pistons VS Bulls
Winner: Pistons
I'm no fool, after watching the Pistons destroy the Bulls in the first game I don't see how the Bulls win the necessary four games.

Cavs VS Nets
Winner: Nets
As good as LeBron is he can't carry a team forever.

Western Conference
Suns VS Spurs
Winner: Suns
Yes the Spurs have experience but their age is showing. Duncan has logged a lot of miles, Bowen is practically on a catheter and Ginobli's bold spot grows by the day.

Jazz VS Warriors
Winner: Jazz
Sloan's too good a coach to be fooled into going small. Plus Davis is banged up and I bet there is a huge letdown after the massive upset.

The View from Here

Alright so I won't be called a NFL Draft expert anytime soon. I only managed to get 5 picks correct although I did have Jacksonville taking Reggie Nelson I just didn't imagine them trading down to get him. I also had New England taking Brandon Meriweather only I had them picking him with there 28th pick not the 24th pick. With that being said I still didn't come close to my targeted goal of 12 right. I guess I'll have to study harder and try to do better next year.

Anyway here's my thoughts on the draft.

• I had the option of watching the draft on the NFL network or on TSN which was carrying ESPN's coverage. The only caveat is that after three hours TSN is switching to hockey leaving me with only the NFL Network. So I decided to start with ESPN's coverage I don't even care that the NFL Network is more accurate and provides better insight. You can't put a price on the entertainment value of Chris Berman paired with Mel Kiper Jr.

• I must say that the best suit of the day belonged to Calvin Johnson who wore a gray 3 piece pinstriped suit. Not a big fan of JaMarcus Russell's all black. Would have been cooler if you had a silver tie or something considering you were going to the Raiders. (And for the record despite that previous paragraph I am in fact not gay)

• Back to Calvin Johnson, everyone thought the fans would be all over Matt Millen for taking another wide receiver but the fans loved the pick and it looks like he made the right decision. In fact only the Mike Williams pick was a bad selection. When they picked Charles Rogers they needed a weapon for the young Joey Harrington so that pick at the time made sense. Then the following year they picked Roy Williams who turned out to be a great pro so that's a good pick. Then they picked Mike Williams which was a head scratcher considering they had other glaring needs. Then this year they needed a wide out and got the undisputed best player in the draft. So all in all only one of the four was a bad pick.

• When Brady Quinn kept falling the only thing that I kept thinking of was his girlfriend. Did you see her? Frankly she was a little disappointing. She was alright but it looked like someone that I could have picked up. Maybe she's rich or has a great body or something but I'm telling you Quinn's going to look back on this and wish he didn't invite her.

• Must say that the Michael Smith guy for ESPN was practically nailing every pick. Count me in the group officially impressed.

• Alright when I switched over to the NFL Network it was better than I thought it would be. Rich Eisen was way more entertaining than I had originally thought and everyone knew there stuff which is more than you can say for Chris Berman and Tony "Why did they make me come to this" Kornheiser. The only downside was when Deion Sanders came into the booth and everyone had to pretend he was funny.

• One final note on Quinn, he sat through four hours of waiting only to be picked by the same team that he thought would take him at number three. So basically he has the downside of playing for a bad team and gets to make about 25 million less. Good times.

• Alright the last thought from the draft. My favorite pick had to be when the Colts picked Gonzalez because you may not know this but they are contractually obligated to have a white third receiver and with Brandon Stokely gone and Ricky Prohl being a senior citizen this pick made the most sense.

NFL Mock Draft

Well it's finally almost here. After months of hype and speculation the NFL Draft is less than 24 hours away and I can't wait. With that being said I can see how others despise all the hoopla over the draft. A lot of it is unnecessary but there wouldn't be that much coverage if there wasn't that much demand. So with that in mind here goes my version of the draft sans any potential trades. I know the actual draft will look nothing like this but if I can get 12 picks right than I'm just as good as all of the experts and from hence forth I will call myself a draft expert. So for your sake I hope I don't do well on this thing.

1) Raiders: JaMarcus Russell (I want to be on record saying he'll be a bust)

2) Lions: Calvin Johnson (I want to be on record saying he won't be a bust)

3) Browns: Brady Quinn

4) Bucs: Joe Thomas

5) Cardinals: Gaines Adams (I bet he sucks in Arizona then gets traded or cut and ends up being a star on another team)

6) Redskins: Amobi Akoye (He's younger than I am, so depressing)

7) Vikings: Adrian Peterson

8) Falcons: LaRon Landry

9) Dolphins: Levi Brown

10) Texans: Leon Hall

11) Niners: Jamaal Anderson

12) Bills: Patrick Willis

13) Rams: Adam Carricker

14) Panthers: Greg Olsen (Bet he wishes he wouldn't have transferred from Notre Dame)

15) Steelers: Darelle Revis

16) Packers: Marshawn Lynch

17) Jaguars: Reggie Nelson (Gators What?)

18) Bengals: Alan Branch

19) Titans: Ted Ginn (Desmond Howard number#2)

20) Giants: Lawrence Timmons

21) Broncos: Anothony Spencer

22) Cowboys: Dwayne Bowe

23) Kansas City: Joe Staley

24) Patriots: Jarvis Moss (I hate it when Gators go to the Pats)

25) Jets: Aaron Ross

26) Eagles: Michael Griffin

27) Saints: Chris Houston

28) Patriots: Brandon Meriweather

29) Ravens: Ben Grubbs

30) Chargers: Robert Meachem

31) Bears: Dwayne Jarrett

32) Colts: Jon Beason

Top Defensive Prospects

Alright before I get into the top defensive prospects from the past seven drafts I've got to mention something about the Raptors game first. The fans at the game in know way represent me or most Raptor fans. I like most decent people would not wear the color of the opposing teams jersey. I am publicly embarrassed and humiliated. First of all everybody wearing the same color shirt is so played, if you wanted to do something original you should have had everyone paint there face or something. Actually scratch that. If Seinfeld taught me anything it's that face painting isn't cool. So I can't think of anything but the marketing department should have been able to come up with something better than this. We haven't been in the playoffs in like five years and this is the best promotion you could come up with? We looked retarded out there and that's before the fact that we were wearing the Nets color. I hope someone got fired for this.

Anyway now to the column. Again same rules as the offensive side of the ball. You have to be the first pick in your draft year and their professional career has no bearing.

DE
1) Julius Peppers (2002): Had everything scouts looked for size, speed, strength and production. Definitely lived up to the hype.

2) Mario Williams (2006): Other than speed was the complete package just like Peppers. It's still early but doesn't look like he'll live up to the hype. Is more Courtney Brown than Julius Peppers.

3) Gaines Adams (2007): Is getting a surprisingly large amount of hype for someone who is an undersized end. He does possess lots of speed and a plethora of pass rush moves.

DT
Gerard Warren (2001): Had the size and the motor to be dominant but had a questionable work ethic. It's too bad, I always like to see the Gator players do well.

Dwayne Robertson (2003): Was a good college player but then had an off the charts workout which sent teams into a frenzy. Never lived up to the hype.

Tommie Harris (2004): Had a great college career and despite being undersized was a dominant pass rusher.

ILB
Dan Morgan (2001): Had the production, size and speed. Is a good pro when healthy.

Patrick Willis (2007): Good production in college and an unreal workout should be a top 15 pick.

Jon Vilma (2004): Other than being undersized he had it all. Is a great pro.

OLB
A.J. Hawk (2006): Elite size and speed. Had an uneventful rookie year but should be good in the league.

D.J. Williams (2004): Had all the measureables. Weird how Miami has most of the top linebacker prospects even this year they have Beason who will probably go first round.

Lawrence Timmons (2007): I'll assume he's the top outside backer chosen this year. He made plays all over the field last year.

S
Sean Taylor (2004): Was like out of a video game where you max out all the guys skills. Was big (220lbs) fast (4.40) and made plays. He delivered big hits and I think he had something like 9 picks his senior year returning a couple for touchdowns. I don't know how he doesn't absolutely dominate in the NFL.

Roy Williams (2002): Was a classic in the box safety who was an absolute stud in college. A good pro who's a little overrated in my opinion.

LaRon Landry (2007): Is the complete package of size and speed. I personally don't see him being dominant but everyone has him a top 8 player.

CB
Quentin Jammer (2002): Was the dominant man to man corner in college had the size and toughness to jam receivers at the line and just enough speed to cover them downfield. Is solid in the NFL but not as good as advertised.

Terence Newman (2003): Was a great cover corner and electrifying return man. Is decent in the pros but not what was expected.

DeAngelo Hall (2004): Has blazing speed and good size. Has lived up to the hype in the NFL

Top 3 defensive prospects
1) Julius Peppers (2002): Once in a generation package for a defensive end.

2) Sean Taylor (2004): Has better measurables than the prototypical safety.

3) Quentin Jammer (2002): Was supposed to be shutdown which is hard to find.