Commencement

There's been a couple of interesting subplots lately in the world of sports. We've got perhaps the greatest pitcher ever coming back to perhaps the greatest sports franchise ever to try and bring them back into pennant contention. We've got the first Philly winning a triple crown horse race in over one hundred years. And I not knowing much about horse racing initially thought "so what, a horse from Philadelphia won a triple crown race." Later I realized the that a Philly was a female horse so now I'm thinking "big deal a female horse won triple crown race. They're just as pumped with steroids as the Colts (males) are."



Anyway that's not what I'm going to write about today. Today with summer just getting under way and high school graduations taking place I'm going to give you what my commencement speech would be if I had been given the chance to speak to my high school class. See I wasn't popular enough or smart enough to be given this distinction so sadly this is the closest I'm going to come. Even though my high school graduation was two years ago I'm nevertheless going to give it my best shot. Anyway here goes.



"So I stand here before you after four years of our lives in this building. It's amazing how short of a time that seems. High school was an important four years, an educational four years, a sometimes difficult four years but above all else it was a fun four years. It Seems like yesterday I was just a boy starting freshman year, trying to fit in and not step on any one's toes and now I'm practically a grown man. My time here shaped me and who I'm going to become just like it shaped you and the men and women you'll become. I remember back in the summer before grade nine and I was a little nervous about starting high school and my parents told me not to worry and how this was going to be the best years of my life. It was comforting then but a little scary now to think like that. I mean don't get me wrong these were the best years of my life so far and I've had more fun and made more friends than I thought possible, but I'd like to think for most of us that the best years are still ahead of us. That we'll go on to bigger and better things, have more new and exciting experiences in front of us. So that's kind of what my message is here for you tonight. It's to celebrate our past accomplishments at this school which have laid the foundation for our accomplishments for the rest of our life. I know it's bittersweet. Statistics tell you that you won't talk to 90% of the people from high school which just seems unreal because I've known many of you since Kindergarten. I can't imagine my life without being able to see and talk to some of you. But that's life, we grow up, we change, we make new friends and have new challenges. Just like high school it won't always be easy but just like high school I'm sure in the end it will all be worth it. So here's to high school and all of the friendships and memories we'll always share and here's to the future. Let's make it the best years of our life."

Finals

Before I get to my final pick for the NBA playoffs (although after chalking up an 0-2 in the last round maybe I should quit) this seems like a good time to discuss Billy Donovan's decision to leave Florida and then return, and why college coaches in general whether it be basketball or football feel the need to leave their successful college positions to go for the bright lights of the professional league.


First of all I was pretty shocked when I heard that Donovan wanted to renege on his commitment to Orlando. They had as good as a situation as one could dream. It was in central Florida where he coached the Gators so his family wouldn't have to move and the magic fans might give him some more leeway if he struggled out of the gate. They had one of the best young low post players in the game who hasn't even scratched the surface of his potential. They play in the inferior conference where despite a sub .500 record they made the playoffs. They have a mid range first round draft pick in a loaded draft class so they have the opportunity to get better. They have some cap space and this summer has the potential for a great free agent class. If that can't entice him enough to jump ship I don't think anything will.


So why did he leave in the first place? Why does Pete Carroll entertain the thought of leaving the best college football program in America (in the heart of Los Angeles no less) why did Spurrior, Pitino and many others decide to try the pro game? Well there's a couple of reasons.


1) Money. A man much wiser than me once said the answer to all your questions is money. (or something to that effect) In the case of Billy Donovan he was going to make a lot of money 27 million over five years. But leaving college for financial reasons is pretty low on the totem pole. Donovan is going to make a ton of money when he resigns his contract at Florida. It won't be the same amount as Orlando but my guess is it will be in the ball park. Also at Florida he has much better job security. So while money is a factor (If the money wasn't there no coach would leave college in my opinion) I just don't see it as being one of the deciding factors.


2) Notoriety. Again pretty low on the list of reasons. Most college coaches have all the fame and praise they could ever want but despite how big the college game is, the professional league is always bigger. That's just the nature of the beast.


3) Wanting to take on new challenges. This is the biggest reason why successful college coaches leave for the pros. In the case of Donovan he has already won two national championships and while sustaining excellence is a huge challenge it doesn't whet the appetite quite like achieving excellence in the pros. For Donovan and all college coaches that went on to coach in the pros, life is comfortable and the job is fun but like all human beings we seek new challenges. It's like when underclassmen declare for the draft (Oden and Durant for example) They both loved college but they both realized it's time to move on. To make themselves better they have to take on new challenges (In their case the money is also a much bigger issue.) I think Mike Vick put it perfectly when he declared for the NFL draft 6 years ago in 2001. He said he loved college and he wanted to stay but he had to leave. That's why I was shocked when Donovan decided to come back. I thought the allure of the new challenge would be too much to pass up. I guess he was unwilling to give up the comfort and security of Florida because once you leave and actually start coaching you can't ever go back to the way things were before. Pitino's now at Louisville, Spurrior's at South Carolina and so on.

Now on to my NBA finals pick. Even though the Spurs should thoroughly dominate I have to go with the Cavs because if LeBron makes the ultimate leap I want it in writing that I called it all along.

Lottery

Wow it's been awhile. Too long really. I got a little distracted with the warm weather and last week I started a new job so I've been adjusting to my new schedule and the column just plain slipped my mind. Most likely because there hasn't been a heck of a lot of interesting things going on in sports. The NBA playoffs are trudging along and Baseball is still going strong but I can honestly say that the thing that got me the most excited was the NBA draft lottery. Depending on how good the draft class is this event can range from mildly intriguing to down right exciting. With this years absolutely loaded draft class it fell into the latter category. So that got me thinking. The NBA lottery stirs up a lot of excitement for its draft and it clearly has a positive effect on the NBA. But would it also work in other sports like baseball or football or is it just suited to the NBA?

There's a couple of reasons why it's ideal for the NBA.

1) There are so few players on a team that one legit superstar can mean the difference from being a contender to being the league's laughingstock.

2) The talent disparity between picks is dramatic. Often times there is one can't miss player and a bunch of question marks (Not always) Also the proportion of first round picks who become busts is large (due to the small roster sizes) therefore the higher your pick the greater the chance of an impact player which doubles in importance because of point number one.

So with those two previous points it's obvious why having a lottery adds to the excitement of the draft and hopefully will prevent tanking because just as the Celtics and Bucks found out last week increasing your odds of a top pick doesn't necessarily get you anywhere.

So will this work in Major League Baseball?
Probably not. The draft is already a non event for everyone except hardcore baseball fans so it wouldn't add any excitement level. Also baseball prospects don't' make an immediate impact and there is rarely a consensus top pick. So I can't really see the point for Baseball.

Well what about the NFL?
Even though there is a general consensus of the top overall player, seldom does that player get taken first overall unless he's a QB. Most teams end up picking for need so there doesn't seem to be a functional reason to do it. Also one player rarely turns around an entire franchise with a couple of notable exceptions (mostly QB's) However the NFL draft is huge. So I'm sure it would generate some buzz. But does the NFL really need it? After the Super Bowl there's Senior Bowl week which shortly leads into the combine, which leads into private workouts, which leads up to the draft. There's doesn't seem to be any time lag where they could use a jolt of attention.

So after careful analysis the draft lottery seems perfect for the NBA and only the NBA. I look forward to it ever year and maybe just one sport having it is enough.

(I'm perfectly aware the NHL uses it but come on that's not really a major sport)

Conference Finals

Well it's official, I like most casual NBA fans have now lost interest in the NBA playoffs. Of the four teams remaining two of them have no superstar players (Jazz, Pistons). One has the most boring superstar in all of sports for the past decade (Spurs) and one has a legitimately young and exciting superstar who just doesn't seem to care and mails in games. (Cavs) Add to the fact that the favorites to make the finals are both defensively minded teams and this could be an absolute disaster of a conclusion to an exciting start to the NBA playoffs. Anyways I couldn't bail now on my picks just because I lost interest so here goes.

Eastern Conference
Cavs VS Pistons
Winner: Pistons
My guess is that it goes seven games. Not so much because of great competitive basketball being played but because both teams like to mail in games so most likely one team will take the lead and then decide they've got the series wrapped up and relax then the other team will tie it up and think wow "we tied it up they're not that good I think we can take it easy the next game" Mercifully the series can't go longer than seven and Detroit should win because LeBron will realize all of the summer holidays he's missing.

Western Conference
Jazz VS Spurs
Winner: Jazz
In case you haven't noticed I really dislike the Spurs and eventually I got to believe that a younger and hungrier team will take them out. I hope the Jazz is that team. With Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer not to mention the resurgence of Kirilenko I like they're chances. They've flown under the radar all season and have been great in the playoffs. I know there's a big difference between Tim Duncan's Spurs and the Warriors but the Jazz are well rested and have a good coach. All the pieces are in place I just hope it happens this season and not next.

Hardest Records to Break

With Barry Bonds' assault on the all time home run record taking place before our very eyes this seems like a good time to dust off an old favorite topic of mine and that's "what are the hardest records in sports to break"? I've seen this debated many times by sports writers and generally they get it all wrong. They say things like breaking the record for most consecutive no hitters is the toughest record in all of sports to break. To do this you would need to pitch three consecutive no hitters which seems impossible, but couldn't you see someone getting on a hot streak and doing it? I know it's not likely but come on, it's three games. Even a bad pitcher could get lucky and do it. So that brings me to my first point, all records that are going to be the toughest to break are all career related. Anyone can get on a hot streak but sustained excellence often for close to twenty years is much more difficult to duplicate. Secondly they should be significant records so for instance I don't really care who has the most penalty minutes in hockey and third they should be individual. Let's reward the player and not the team. Lastly I'm only going to include records from sports I know somewhat about. So sorry cricket fans none of your records are on the list.

Here's some notable exemptions. Jerry Rice's 22 895 receiving yards is most likely never going to be broken but with the ageless Marvin Harrison you just never know. There was too much doubt to put it on the list.

Cal Ripken's playing streak isn't on there because it's not that big of a deal. So he played a bunch of games in a row. He should have taken a rest because it hurt his team in September with his annual decline in production.


Here we go the official list of the five hardest records to break in sports.

5) Basketball's Highest Average Points per game for an entire season
Wilt Chamberlain 50.4 points 1961-1962.

O.K. it seems like I'm contradicting myself and frankly I am but come on can you really see someone ever averaging 50.4 points for an entire season ever again? Current scoring leaders would need to score about 20 more points per game just to get it. Other Chamberlain records that I considered were the most rebounds in a career 23,924 (15 per game for twenty years.) and rebounds per game in a season 22.9. I ultimately felt that with the advances in health care we could see someone play twenty five seasons and possibly break the total rebounds and I feel that the 50.4 points is harder to get to than 22.9 rebounds.


4) NHL Most points in a career
Wayne Gretzky 2857

Anyone who thinks that Sidney Crosby is breaking this record is dreaming. All he'll have to do is average 115 points a season for 25 years. Probably the most untouchable record that was recorded recently. There are plenty of other Gretzky records that I could have one this list as well like most points in a season 215, most assists, most goals, etc. This one however seems the most untouchable.

3) MLB Highest Batting Average
Ty Cobb .367

Baseball could have it's own list of top ten unbeatable records but I'll limit myself to two. One batting and one pitching. I can't really see anyone having a long career hitting .367 with the amount of relievers and specialists in today's game. Other records I considered were most stolen bases all time (Ricky Henderson 1406) But it's conceivable that stolen bases could become more of a trend and someone beats it. One I didn't consider was DiMaggio's hit streak. Everyone thinks it's untouchable but every couple years someone makes a legitimate run at it. It's just a matter of time before someone beats it.

2) Boxing Most Wins
Willie Pep 230
Most distinguished fighters top out at about 50 wins which is just over 20% of the necessary wins required to break the record. With the amount of time between fights now it's safe to say this record isn't going down.


1) MLB Most wins
Cy Young 511

This is without a doubt the most untouchable record in all of sports. No one is coming close and no one is ever going to surpass it. With the five man rotation that teams use now most people think it's very unlikely to see any young pitchers reach 300 wins. That doesn't even come close to the required 512 to break it. To put it in perspective last year no pitcher won twenty games but for you to break the record it would require 26 straight years of 20 wins. The other pitching stat that I considered was for the best era ever which Walsh owns at 1.82. It's very unlikely someones breaking that one but there is no way that anyone tops the most wins in MLB history.

Round 2

So before posting my second round playoff predictions I naturally wanted to wait until the first round was over. Well some idiot thought that the second round of the East should start before the first round of the West was finished. My guess is that this is the same guy who decided the first round should last two weeks and be a best of seven instead of a best of five because a best of five would be too exciting. With all that said maybe starting the second round early will be a good thing because after I only went 5-3 in the first round I could use a game in hand before making my predictions. So considering another game is being played as a type this I'll try to hammer this column out quickly

Eastern Conference
Pistons VS Bulls
Winner: Pistons
I'm no fool, after watching the Pistons destroy the Bulls in the first game I don't see how the Bulls win the necessary four games.

Cavs VS Nets
Winner: Nets
As good as LeBron is he can't carry a team forever.

Western Conference
Suns VS Spurs
Winner: Suns
Yes the Spurs have experience but their age is showing. Duncan has logged a lot of miles, Bowen is practically on a catheter and Ginobli's bold spot grows by the day.

Jazz VS Warriors
Winner: Jazz
Sloan's too good a coach to be fooled into going small. Plus Davis is banged up and I bet there is a huge letdown after the massive upset.

The View from Here

Alright so I won't be called a NFL Draft expert anytime soon. I only managed to get 5 picks correct although I did have Jacksonville taking Reggie Nelson I just didn't imagine them trading down to get him. I also had New England taking Brandon Meriweather only I had them picking him with there 28th pick not the 24th pick. With that being said I still didn't come close to my targeted goal of 12 right. I guess I'll have to study harder and try to do better next year.

Anyway here's my thoughts on the draft.

• I had the option of watching the draft on the NFL network or on TSN which was carrying ESPN's coverage. The only caveat is that after three hours TSN is switching to hockey leaving me with only the NFL Network. So I decided to start with ESPN's coverage I don't even care that the NFL Network is more accurate and provides better insight. You can't put a price on the entertainment value of Chris Berman paired with Mel Kiper Jr.

• I must say that the best suit of the day belonged to Calvin Johnson who wore a gray 3 piece pinstriped suit. Not a big fan of JaMarcus Russell's all black. Would have been cooler if you had a silver tie or something considering you were going to the Raiders. (And for the record despite that previous paragraph I am in fact not gay)

• Back to Calvin Johnson, everyone thought the fans would be all over Matt Millen for taking another wide receiver but the fans loved the pick and it looks like he made the right decision. In fact only the Mike Williams pick was a bad selection. When they picked Charles Rogers they needed a weapon for the young Joey Harrington so that pick at the time made sense. Then the following year they picked Roy Williams who turned out to be a great pro so that's a good pick. Then they picked Mike Williams which was a head scratcher considering they had other glaring needs. Then this year they needed a wide out and got the undisputed best player in the draft. So all in all only one of the four was a bad pick.

• When Brady Quinn kept falling the only thing that I kept thinking of was his girlfriend. Did you see her? Frankly she was a little disappointing. She was alright but it looked like someone that I could have picked up. Maybe she's rich or has a great body or something but I'm telling you Quinn's going to look back on this and wish he didn't invite her.

• Must say that the Michael Smith guy for ESPN was practically nailing every pick. Count me in the group officially impressed.

• Alright when I switched over to the NFL Network it was better than I thought it would be. Rich Eisen was way more entertaining than I had originally thought and everyone knew there stuff which is more than you can say for Chris Berman and Tony "Why did they make me come to this" Kornheiser. The only downside was when Deion Sanders came into the booth and everyone had to pretend he was funny.

• One final note on Quinn, he sat through four hours of waiting only to be picked by the same team that he thought would take him at number three. So basically he has the downside of playing for a bad team and gets to make about 25 million less. Good times.

• Alright the last thought from the draft. My favorite pick had to be when the Colts picked Gonzalez because you may not know this but they are contractually obligated to have a white third receiver and with Brandon Stokely gone and Ricky Prohl being a senior citizen this pick made the most sense.